Flu strategists: On predicting
the spread of the H1N1 virus
Globally, flu strategists are
actively engaged in predicting the spread of the H1N1 virus. This is a science
and an art that has serious, global health implications.
There are steadily growing
medical statistics with respect to the numbers of people who have been infected in the past
and the present, with the H1N1 virus. When a health care professional, a scientist
or a flu strategist acquires this information, peers into the future and tries
to predict what it means for the future of the global community, this may still
be a numbers game, at least to some extent.
What happens if the predictions
made by the flu strategists are correct? If action is taken, many people will live. That is what
flu strategists, scientists and health care professionals are hoping to achieve
by their work.
What happens if they are not
correct? Many lives may be at stake.
"Symptoms of the H1N1
virus in children - and - what parents need to know now" (1) is an article
published on the web site: http://h1n1virus.us.
While this web site contains
valuable H1N1 virus information, have its predictions been accurate? In other
words, has what they predicted come true to date? How and when will we know?
Will it only be in retrospect?
"Flu Strategists See
Schools on Front Line," an article by the Washington Post, dated August
24, 2009, alerted the public to concerns about the H1N1 virus and children. (2)
Why is monitoring, as well as
predicting the spread of the H1N1 virus, so crucial?
Taking appropriate and
effective health care measures against an infectious disease like the H1N1
virus as soon as possible, is vital. Accurate predictions by flu strategists
are necessary to make certain that vaccines will be available for disease
prevention. Healthcare measures are essential to control the further spread of
the infectious disease, wherever it may be running rampant.
Globally, health care
professionals must be alert to the serious nature of the existing pandemic and
thus, predictions based upon accurate statistics are important to them, too.
Health care educators need to be aware of what is happening, all around the
world. They may need to seek advanced training for themselves or train others, with respect to teaching large masses of people, who may be vulnerable to the
disease.
There are multiple factors that
flu strategists must consider when they are making predictions regarding the
possible spread of the H1N1 virus.
These factors initially include
statistics based upon past and present incidents of the infectious disease. Accurate tracking is vital. Statistics establish a base number from which to
make predictions about the future.
Graphs demonstrate current, as well as potential, future trends.
This information includes the numbers of people involved, the severity of the
disease, as well as the number of deaths attributed to the H1N1 virus and other
factors that may be involved, like preexisting medical conditions.
Flu strategists need to be
aware of demographics, as well as locations and seasons, as they have to be
included in the equation. The age and current health status of different levels
of the global population help to determine whether certain age groups are more
prone to the infectious disease. For example, the H1N1 virus appears to be
affecting the younger generation.
Factors also include the
economic status of people living in certain parts of the world. There is also the
cost factor to consider in the light of manufacturing, producing and
administering flu vaccines.
What is a flu strategist?
He or she is a person who
works with medical statistics about the H1N1 virus or other infectious
diseases, health care professionals and educators, as well as important global
health data, in order to control and prevent the spread of a disease like the
H1N1 virus. Flu strategists regard their work in terms of being a major
scientific project, as well as an art.
The accuracy and credibility of
flu strategists is important, because if they err in the analysis of even one
global disease process, they may not have an opportunity to make predictions,
regarding a future event of a similar nature.
For those who are concerned
about H1N1 statistics with an eye to the future, it is a good idea to seek
current, accurate information from physicians, other health care professionals
or health care educators who are properly informed.
The World Health Organization
has a web page entitled 'Global Alert and Response' regarding the H1N1
pandemic, at the following web site:http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html (3)
The work of flu strategists is carried out through the WHO.
"WHO continues to track
the evolving infectious disease situation, sound the alarm when needed, share expertise,
and mount the kind of response needed to protect populations from the
consequences of epidemics, whatever and wherever might be their origin."
(4)
Here are some current
statistics.
"As of 1 November 2009,
worldwide more than 199 countries and overseas territories/communities have
reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including
over 6000 deaths." (5)
As a responsible person, make a
point of staying informed about the work of flu strategists, with regard to the
H1N1 virus, but remember that accuracy of medical information and statistics is
equally vital.
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